As the NCAA season progresses, I’m going to publish weekly rankings in conjunction with the USCHO poll. These rankings will be entirely statistics based with the explanation as to how those stats are developed here. As I prefer to do when compiling rankings, a team’s final ranking will be determined by a summation of their rankings in various statistical categories:
- Overall winning percentage (pct)
- Percentage of shots taken (S%) – (Editor’s Note – This is essentially the best imitator of Corsi %. I’m told that shot attempts (Shots on goal plus missed shots plus shots taken that get blocked) are recorded but that data is not available anywhere.)
- Percentage of shots taken relative to Opponents’ S% (Rel S%)
- S% versus teams with an S% of 50% or more
- Rel S% versus teams with an S% of 50 or more
- Shooting Percentage (Sht%)
- Save Percentage (Sv%)
I guess it’s difficult to move Cornell with a 2-1 win over Dartmouth and a 3-0 loss to Harvard. I thought North Dakota’s blowout sweep of Bemidji State (4-1, 5-1) might push them into the top ten, but USCHO voters have them 12th behind Mercyhurst.
Quinnipiac suffered losses to BU and BC and Harvard is the only ECAC team to have beaten them so their advancement isn’t surprising. Those Harvard – Quinnipiac – Clarkson dates loom ever larger for the ECAC.
Speaking of the ECAC, St. Lawrence blew Mercyhurst out 6-1, and 4-1 and at times neither game looked even that close. In the past Mercyhurst has been a legitimate good team while blowing out the CHA. I don’t think that’s true this season.
There’s really not a whole lot to comment on here. All the big movers had pretty good weekends:
- St. Lawrence blew out Mercyhurst twice.
- North Dakota blew out Bemidji State twice.
- Vermont somehow scraped a win against Boston University.
- New Hampshire split with Penn State. (Okay that one is a little weird.)
- Robert Morris swept Lindenwood.
I’m a little surprised Brown’s OT win over Yale didn’t move them upwards at least a little. There are a couple different places that say Union isn’t the worst team in the ECAC. Big, if true. Here are their finishes since joining the ECAC in 2003-2004: last, last, last, last, last, last, last, last, second to last, last, last. They’re 10-225-13 in ECAC play all time and they’ve been outscored 1,124-196 in that span. Some success, even a little bit, would be nice.
A couple things happened this weekend that changed a lot, namely both Vermont and RIT dipped below a 50% shots percentage rating (they’ve allowed more than they’ve taken) removing them from the list of quality opponents at least temporarily. That said, things pretty much happened as expected; teams were rewarded for winning and penalized for losing.
- Jan. 30 – Harvard @ Quinnipiac
- Feb. 14 – Quinnipiac @ Clarkson
- Feb. 21 – Clarkson @ Harvard
Quinnipiac and Clarkson have free live feeds for home games so circle those dates.