As the NCAA season progresses, I’m going to publish weekly rankings in conjunction with the USCHO poll. These rankings will be entirely statistics based with the explanation as to how those stats are developed here. As I prefer to do when compiling rankings, a team’s final ranking will be determined by a summation of their rankings in various statistical categories:
- Overall winning percentage (pct)
- Goal differential (+/-)
- Percentage of shots taken (S%) – (Editor’s Note – This is essentially the best imitator of Corsi %. I’m told that shot attempts (Shots on goal plus missed shots plus shots taken that get blocked) are recorded but that data is not available anywhere.)
- Percentage of shots taken relative to Opponents’ S% (Rel S%)
- Power play and penalty kill percentage – NEW DATA
- S% versus teams with an S% of 50% or more
- Rel S% versus teams with an S% of 50 or more
- Shooting Percentage (Sht%)
- Save Percentage (Sv%)
I have finally decided to do the extra work so we can include special teams figures. Also I have taken to making all of my spreadsheets available for download here.
The extremely reactionary USCHO.com poll never ceases to make me laugh. Northeastern plummets after losing to two ranked teams (Boston College and Harvard). Harvard gains a spot despite losing to a 6-10-0 team. Said 6-10-0 team is #10.
The PairWise ranking is important because the NCAA tournament field’s at-large bids are generally populated by the highest ranked teams that didn’t secure an auto-bid by winning their conference tournament. A breakdown of how the ranking is determined can be found here.
I’ve added the previous weekend’s results along with each team’s movement from the previous week. Again, eight teams make the NCAA Tournament so let’s run down the top eight:
Wisconsin just absolutely crushed Dartmouth over the weekend. The 4-0 and 4-1 scores weren’t that impressive, but the shots were; 53-22 and 63-9. And Dartmouth is a good possession team, one that sits near the top of the ECAC.
2. Boston College
With two wins BC has probably put enough space between them and Northeastern to run away with the Hockey East crown. Last weekend’s game was weird with the Eagles getting outshot 37-23. That’s probably because they had a comfortable lead for most of the game. But BC has that sort of lead in most games and they never get outshot like that.
Minnesota played two pretty uninspiring games versus Minnesota State. The 11-1 score Friday looks good. The 2-1 score Saturday and the 36-17 and 31-16 shots numbers do not. See above what Wisconsin did to Dartmouth.
The Bobcats once again ran through the Nutmeg Classic tournament fairly easily with two shutout victories. Rookie head coach Cassandra Turner has had the interim tag removed from her title and with good reason. The Bobcats have been impressive and lead the ECAC.
The Golden Knights were idle this past weekend. They’ve got a good chance at a sweep versus Colgate and Cornell to get themselves back into the top of the ECAC standings.
My metric doesn’t fault the Huskies much for losing to Harvard and Boston College, particularly when their shots numbers looked good in those games.
I’m not sure if Harvard isn’t that good, or the WCHA is so much better than the ECAC that a middle team like UMD is on par with a top team like Harvard.
8. North Dakota
North Dakota continues to mystify me just as much as Syracuse so it’s fitting that they played one another, and split, last weekend. “Good but inconsistent’ seems to be a fair label.
The Best of the Rest
The Colonials are 9-5-2 and sit 10th in my rankings. How’d they get here? A weak schedule and a top ten penalty kill (9th) help.
Likewise the Tigers are 7-4-1 after winning the Tiger fight against RIT. Princeton looks to be a factor in the ECAC this season and perhaps in the at large tournament bids.