Rankings February 18: Playoffs Shaping Up

As the NCAA season progresses, I’m going to publish weekly rankings in conjunction with the USCHO poll.  These rankings will be entirely statistics based with the explanation as to how those stats are developed here.  As I prefer to do when compiling rankings, a team’s final ranking will be determined by a summation of their rankings in various statistical categories:

  • Overall winning percentage (pct)
  • Goal differential (+/-)
  • Percentage of shots taken (S%) – (Editor’s Note – This is essentially the best imitator of Corsi %.  I’m told that shot attempts (Shots on goal plus missed shots plus shots taken that get blocked) are recorded but that data is not available anywhere.) 
  • Percentage of shots taken relative to Opponents’ S% (Rel S%)
  • Power play and penalty kill percentage
  • S% versus teams with an S% of 50% or more
  • Rel S% versus teams with an S% of 50 or more
  • Shooting Percentage (Sht%)
  • Save Percentage (Sv%)

Also I have taken to making all of my spreadsheets available for download here.

uscho

Once again this group remains static.  Harvard got votes this week when they didn’t last week because drawing RPI and beating Union was super impressive I guess.

pairwise

Northeastern and Princeton actually have a decent sized gap on Bemidji State and North Dakota in terms of the formula that determines the ranking.  I’m not sure entirely how many wins / losses would be needed to close that gap, but the Tigers and Huskies will probably be in if they avoid first round exits in their conference tournaments and the Beavers and Fighting Hawks don’t win auto-bids by winning theirs (because Minnesota and Wisconsin would take at-large bids).

rankings

Let’s break down the top eight:

1. Boston College (1)

The Eagles have clinched the top seed in Hockey East and are chasing down an undefeated regular season.  A two game series against Providence stands in their way.  They’ll play one of Vermont, Providence, New Hampshire, or Maine in the first round.

2. Wisconsin (2)

Likewise the Badgers have clinched the WCHA’s top seed.  Their opponent is also locked in; it will be the Minnesota State Mavericks.

3. Quinnipiac (3)

With a three-point lead on the second-place Golden Knights, Quinnipiac has all but clinched the ECAC.  They hold the tiebreaker so all they need is one point on the weekend.

4. Minnesota (4)

Minnesota has clinched second in the WCHA and will be meeting Ohio State in the first round.  Even with a sweep of Wisconsin they’d fall one point short of the WCHA crown.

5. Clarkson (5)

The Golden Knights have secured home ice for the first round of the ECAC tournament.  They’ve got a four-point lead on Princeton and Colgate with a tiebreaker against the Tigers.  If they tie with the Raiders in points it will likely come down to wins against the top four teams.

The Knights play Yale and Brown so it’s pretty likely they’ll answer all questions by merely sweeping the weekend.

6. Northeastern (6)

Northeastern is locked into the second seed in Hockey East.  They’ll meet one from the same pool as Boston College in the first round.

7. Princeton (7)

The Tigers hold the tiebreaker on Colgate so a weekend sweep would see them no worse than third.  They meet Union and RPI so at least one win is pretty likely.  If they only manage two points they risk being caught by Harvard though that would only push them down to fourth.

8. Colgate (8)

Colgate has Harvard and Dartmouth, one of the tougher final weekends.  They’re losing the tiebreaker to Harvard with a loss right now so the game against the Crimson is crucial.

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About Alex

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