Statistics-Based Power Rankings Nov. 6

Hello and welcome back to my statistics-based power rankings. How do they work? I track ten categories and sum each team’s rankings across the categories. Lowest sum is the best team.

The Categories:

  • Winning percentage
  • Goal differential
  • Shooting Percentage
  • Save Percentage
  • Power Play
  • Penalty Kill
  • Percentage of shots taken in games – if a team outshoots their opponent 30-20 on average, they take 60% of the shots
  • Differential vs. expected shots value – If the above team’s opponent takes 25% of the shots in a game (thus allowing 75%) the team above has a differential of -15% which means that even though 30-20 is a good average shots number, they are underperforming because their opponents are bad.
  • The above two versus opponents who average 50% or more shots taken in a game (quality teams)

The Rankings:

1. Wisconsin

The Badgers are first or second in every category except for shooting percentage (13th) and power play (22nd). They’re tops in overall shots percentage and differential and second in the same figures versus quality teams.

2. Minnesota

Minnesota is similar to Wisconsin in overall figures, but the Gophers are solid on special teams. Where they falter is in their average shooting percentage (13th) and save percentage (17th).

3. St. Lawrence

The Saints have had a heck of a start to the season, with wins over Clarkson (non-conference), Princeton, and Quinnipiac. The Saints’ power play is pretty meh at 18th but they’re top-four in every other category except shooting percentage (5th) and percentage of shots (6th).

4. Colgate

The Raiders benefit from having few weaknesses. Their lowest category is save percentage where they’re 14th, but .928 isn’t exactly a bad number. (League average is .917.) The only downside to the Raiders is they’ve played the league’s second weakest (first – Wisconsin) schedule on shots. Colgate’s opponents average just 44.9% of the shots. That’s a 33-27 disadvantage in a 60 shot game.

5. Quinnipiac

The Bobcats went winless on the weekend which knocks their win percentage down to 12th. Ironically that’s their worst figure. Next to that Quinnipiac sics one spot outside the top ten in penalty kill. The Bobcats are riding their shooting percentage and their power play (both 5th) to their success. Are they sustainable?

6. Boston College

The most curious thing about the Eagles is, like Minnesota, their pedestrian shooting and goaltending. Their 9.0% shooting percentage is just 18th and their .918 save percentage is 23rd. The former is odd since the Eagles boast the league’s top power play converting at 30.0%.

7. Clarkson

The Knights come in below the Bobcats despite their big win for a few reasons. Their goaltending (13th) and penalty kill (20th) have been very average. Their percentage of shots versus quality teams isn’t the greatest either (15th).

8. Yale

The Bulldogs are largely riding very few games played along with blowout wins over RIT. Still, their tough loss to Quinnipiac and their draw versus Princeton suggest they should be closer to the top than the bottom. Their 12.2% shooting percentage, which is surely unsustainable, suggests they should be a bit further from the top than they currently are though.

9. Princeton

The Tigers come off a rough weekend in the North Country where Clarkson and St. Lawrence swept them. Princeton has only played six games and it seems like they’re still trying to get their footing. Their 24th ranked penalty kill needs work. The Tigers sit just on both sides of the top ten in most other categories.

10. Minnesota-Duluth

The Bulldogs get pushed to the bottom for two reasons. One is a curiously bad penalty kill that sits 31st in the league. The other is their percentage of shots versus quality teams, mostly because said quality teams are Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Boston College.

11. Northeastern

12. Cornell

13. North Dakota

14. Boston University

15. Robert Morris

The metric packs these four teams together and they do all seem to fit the ‘just outside the top ten’ mold. Cornell’s possession numbers are good, though they haven’t played much. North Dakota boasts the nation’s top penalty kill.

16. Providence

17. Syracuse

18. Vermont

19. Connecticut

20. Bemidji State

21. Mercyhurst

22. Penn State

23. New Hampshire

These teams also cluster, your classic middle of the pack teams. Providence and Syracuse are elevated just a bit above the rest of them. The only figure in the top five here is New Hampshire’s penalty kill (3rd).

24. Ohio State

25. RPI

26. Merrimack

27. Harvard

By and large these teams are relying on one or two elite players to carry their team.

28. Maine

29. St. Cloud State

30. Union

31. Minnesota State

32. Brown

33. RIT

34. Dartmouth

35. Lindenwood

On the Lions, Lindenwood is 0-8-0 with 3 goals for and 33 against. They’re struggling mightily with the departure of forward Shara Jasper. It’s good to see a few schools, Union and Minnesota State, moving up in the rankings, if only slightly.

Advertisements

About Alex

I am awesome.
This entry was posted in Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s