Hello and welcome back to my statistics-based power rankings. How do they work? I track ten categories and sum each team’s rankings across the categories. Lowest sum is the best team.
- Winning percentage
- Goal differential
- Shooting Percentage
- Save Percentage
- Power Play
- Penalty Kill
- Percentage of shots taken in games – if a team outshoots their opponent 30-20 on average, they take 60% of the shots
- Differential vs. expected shots value – If the above team’s opponent takes 25% of the shots in a game (thus allowing 75%) the team above has a differential of -15% which means that even though 30-20 is a good average shots number, they are underperforming because their opponents are bad.
- The above two versus opponents who average 50% or more shots taken in a game (quality team)
%ST 50+ Rel.
- St. Lawrence
The Saints have actually played the most difficult schedule of the three having seen Clarkson twice, Northeastern twice, Quinnipiac, and Princeton already. Minnesota and Wisconsin will bolster their schedules in the coming weeks seeing North Dakota and Bemidji State and Minnesota-Duluth and Cornell respectively before playing each other.
St. Lawrence hits a relatively easy stretch playing at Yale and Brown before a two-game series at Penn State. They’ll play the home and home league rematches versus Clarkson the following week.
As it stands right now these are the teams to beat. They’re all playing high level hockey in every phase and have almost no weaknesses.
The Very Goods
- Boston College
Colgate brings the country’s best record against some of the weakest competition. It’s difficult to pinpoint their best win. Is it the 3-2 victory over Syracuse? Their 2-1 win over Cornell? Their 4-3 win over Yale? Every time the Raiders have played someone near the top of the rankings they’ve barely been able to scrape a victory. What happens when they play Clarkson or St. Lawrence?
Boston College has been pretty up and down this season. Credit that to youth. Their top three scorers are freshman Caitrin Lonergan, sophomore Makenna Newkirk, and freshman Delaney Belinskas.
Quinnipiac is…Quinnipiac. At this point everyone knows what they bring to the table: ferocious pressure on the puck, low shot totals and a caliber of play just below some of the better teams.
The Golden Knights may arguably be the best team on this list. They already have a win over Quinnipiac and they’ve been more consistent than Boston College having taken care of business in the ECAC.
It’s difficult to know what to make of Cornell. They’ve done what good teams do, bury their opponents on shots with their only blemishes a loss to RPI (shots 41-20) and a loss to ranked Colgate.
Northeastern has had a weird season. After getting blown out by St. Lawrence they suffered a puzzling loss to Merrimack (who is maybe kind of decent?) in the middle of two four-game win streaks. Their matchup against Boston College next Sunday will be a good measuring stick.
The Tigers did themselves no favors with an overtime loss to putrid Dartmouth last weekend. I would put too much into it, the Tigers won shots 47-25 and the Big Green are even money at home where they can get favorable line matchups.